Published material


Volatility based business design

Different industries experience different volatilities. A lot of resilience and efficiency can be addressed effectively by designing your business system. This article - largely an extract of Prepare to Dare chapter 5, describes this pre-emptive approach to intelligent risk taking.

Volatility based business design.pdf

Risk Management. A multi-facetted profession … that should not exist.

Risk management is organised using many different set-ups in different companies. Consultants and auditors have strong opinions on how to do this as well. In this article I argue there should not be a risk management organisation at all … rather a fully integrated processual approach.

Risk management - a multi facetted profession.pdf

Risk appetite and risk tolerance

COSO has issued a guide to risk appetite and risk tolerance - where the use of the terms is exactly opposite to that of the ISO definition of 2009. I address and the useful application of these terms.

Risk appetite and risk tolerance.pdf

Leverage Covid-19 learning

Executives find and boast that during the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns, organisations are shown to be more agile, decisive and effective than ever before. This article "urges" executives to hold on to the qualities as business conditions after the pandemic and subsequent financial crisis will continue to be volatile.

Leverage Covid-19 learning.pdf

Covid-19 … and then what

In the spring of 2020 a Corona virus named Covid-19 is rampaging the world leading to governmental induced lockdowns to limit viral spreading. From a risk management perspective it is however, also important to address the aftermath of the virus attack. This article addresses this.

Covid-19 ... and then what.pdf

Managing legal risks

I have learned that legal risks are not about abiding by the law, but about the complex world of contracts in business. This article describes how these risks can be validly addressed and managed.

Managing legal risk.pdf

- - - 2019 articles - - -

5 reasons projects fail

- and what to do about them

Projects fail more often than what is desirable and still methods and approaches to manage projects remains largely the same. In this article I address 5 common reasons, and provide guidance as to what it takes to enhance performance.

5 Reasons projects fail.pdf

Uncertainty based capacity planning

The tools and techniques of a risk manager, eg. Monte Carlo simulation can effectively be applied to and enhance other business areas as well. In this article, I address the option of enhancing manufacturing capacity planning in an world of uncertainty.

Uncertainty based capacity planning.pdf

You cannot risk manage a decision

Risk management standards and best practice highlight that risk management must affect decisions to be effective. Any decision has two components. The WHAT to do, which cannot be risk managed, and the HOW to do it, which can and should be risk managed. The distinction has consequences for how to effectively impact decision making.

You cannot risk manage a decision.pdf

Your reputation at risk

To many risk manager and executives the concept of managing is opaque and difficult to handle … and they end up doing nothing. Yet scandals of many kinds from all kinds of industries all over the world shows the topic of reputation is important. This article addresses seeks to make the issue tangible and actionable.

Reputation risk considerations.pdf

Three levels of strategic risks

The concept of strategic risks actually spans over three levels which again call for three different approaches to management as one level is poorly served with the approach of another level. This piece describes what and how.

Three level of strategic risks.pdf

Where risk management needs to be headed

Traditional risk management is becoming increasingly obsolete, and risk managers need to upgrade their positions in order to continuously add value and be relevant for companies. This article provoides some perspectives to this.

Where risk management needs to be headed.pdf

The valuable heat-map

A heat-map or a risk matrix is one of the most controversial tools in risk management. Whereas traditional use is useless and sometimes even wrong, there is a better way of using a matrix for reporting purposes. This article indicates how.

The valuable heat-map.pdf

Decision risk management - made simple

Decision risk management is relevant for big strategic decisions as well as smaller, and even day-to-day decisions. Especially to cater to the latter, this article is an approach, which can be applied mentally and within the timeframe of making a decision - and scaled to cover the large, complex and expensive decisions.

Decision risk management made simple.pdf

Decision focused risk management is not that different

Moving from traditional into decision focused risk management is a challenge, and may be overwhelming to some - don't worry. The key difference is timing and all of your traits as risk manager comes to good use in decision focused risk management as well.

Decision focused risk management is not that different.pdf

Re-branding ….

From Risk Management to Success Assurance

Risk management has for years been built on a frame of reference emerging from Finance, Audit or Insurance functions. This may not be optimal, and I here suggest leveraging the paradigm of Quality Assurance as the frame of reference for risk management.

Re-branding ... from risk management to success assurance.pdf

- - - 2018 Articles - - -

Technology risks … and opportunities

The 4th industrial revolution speaks about the digitalization of "everything". This is predicted to lead to disruptions and risks. However, it will also lead to opportunities like the world has never seen before. Balancing this with optimal risk taking is not easy, but well worth while.

How can risk management help us harness new technology.pdf

Don't waste time managing risks

Risk management specialists have to step up and add value by focusing on optimizing business performance to stay relevant. This invokes new processes and required new skill - compared to traditional risk management approaches.
Dont waste time managing risks.pdf

Cyber is not a risk

There is a lot of discussion and worry about cyber risk. However, this is not one risk - but a category of different risks (and opportunities) each with it's own severity and approach for handling.

Cyber is not a risk.pdf

When disaster hits

Most risk management is focused on reducing the likelihood and impact of adverse events. The proactive also look for intelligent risk taking. Still - now and then disaster hits, and now the active risk management has to stand it test of real life.

When the disaster hits.pdf

Balanced approaches to risk management

Risk management has evolved, and two essentially different approaches has emerged. The traditional risk centric management of taken risks, and the emerging performance centric management of risk taking.

Balanced approaches to risk management.docx.pdf

ERM - The risk managers tool

Enterprise Risk Management is an approach and methodology to help the risk manager direct decision making when needed. Not a "one-size-fits-all" compliance register.

ERM - the risk managers tool.docx.pdf

Rethinking the three lines of defence

The concept of having three lines of defence has been around for a long time. In the volatile world of today and the future, this concept needs to be redefined to remain relevant.

Rethinking the three lines of defence.pdf

ISO 31000 Update

The ISO 31000 has been updated from the 2009 version to a 2018 version. This is a more focused edition, without any major changes - but repeatedly highlighting the need for risk management to be an integral part of decision making.

ISO 31000 update.pdf

2018 State of Risk Management Report

This report has just be released, and shows some progress - but alas only a little, and in some ways - in the direction of more bureaucracy and

control, and less towards effective decision and intelligent risk taking.

In the below, I comment on the key findings.
2018 State of Risk Oversight.pdf

Imagine and prepare for 2030

This article leverage the AKTUS "Prepare for Uncertainty" scenario process to address 2030 and pinpoint issues to consider for businesses and organisations already today.
Imagining 2030.pdf

Business Continuity - Strategic Perspective

This article has been published in the January edition of the Risk Insights Newsletter. The focus is applying known business continuity approaches to strategy as well.
Perspectives on Business Resilience.pdf

Speed of change - Stop whining and leverage it

Gareth Byatt of Risk Insights and I have co-authored this article on the opportunity of leveraging the ever increasing speed of change. The article has been published January 2018 on Strategic Risk/Europe and as a series of three smaller pieces in Strategic RISK Asia/Pacific
Speed of change - stop whining and leverage it.pdf

Future jobs - Different school subjects

The world is changing and machines will take over any task and job that can be described systematically to any degree. What will be left for us humans are jobs based on creativity and empathy. Preparing todays children for tomorrows means we need to teach these subjects explicitly.
Future jobs - Different school subjects.pdf

From traditional to strategic risk manager

The role of a strategic risk manager is very different from that of a traditional risk manager. This article describes the change of tasks and skills requirements etc.
From traditional to strategic risk manager.pdf

- - - 2017 articles - - -

A practical guide to risk tolerance

The ISO and COSO standards talk about risk tolerance and risk appetite. This article provides a practical guide to the definition and use of these valuable concepts.
A practical guide to risk tolerance.pdf

Winning with projects

Project risk management is more than ensuring delivery on time/on budget. This article describes how holistic risk and opportunity management for projects can vastly enhance the value and success rate of a project.
Winning with projects.pdf

Uncertainty and strategic advantage

All organisations live in a world of uncertainties. These can be leveraged as strategic competitive advantages by applying the tools and approaches of risk management in the decision making and strategy processes.
Uncertainty and strategic advantage.pdf

Utilize your risk appetite and tolerance

The level of managing risks depends on your risk tolerance, yet many companies have not defined this. By knowing what level of risk, you are prepared to take, you can leverage this to take on more risks in pursuit of higher aspirations.
Utilize your risk appetite and -tolerance.pdf

Faster changes

The world is changing at an ever-increasing speed. This may be true, but change is the only constant – a more than 2000 year old quote. As a leader, leverage this to your advantage.
Faster changes.pdf



Uncertainty based capacity planning

Risk management skills can be effectively applied whenever one is dealing with uncertainties. One such example is capacity planning. I show how you can leverage risk management tolls like Monte Carlo simulation to calculate capacity needs based on a targeted delivery service of e.g. 90%. Traditional capacity planning tools does not provide such an option. This presentation was part of the Risk Awareness Week 2020.

Decide to Succeed

A broad discussion with Alex Sidorenko on 1 April 2020 where we took offset in my book Decide to Succeed" and responded to attendee questions on decision risk management. The session is available on YouTube.

#Changing Risk Day

The magazine StrategicRisk established a 24 hour #ChangingRisk marathon. My contribution is uploaded here - including my speaker notes.

ChangingRisk day - handout w notes.pdf

Risk Awareness Week 2019

I am a proud contributor to this online October week, where I talked about decision risk management in action. The slides are available below.

RAW2019 - Optimize Decision Value.pdf

DARIM Meeting

I had the pleasure to talk to the Danish organisation of risk managers (DARIM) both in an shorter address to the plenary session, and a longer session with the ERM branch of the organisation.

Both presentations (in Danish) are downloadable below.

DARIM Plenum.pdf

Risk-based decision making

I had the pleasure to participate with Alexander Larsen, Danny Wong, Alexei Sidorenko in a panel discussion led by Kin Ly of StrategicRISK. We discussed the why, the obstacles and the how's of implementing decision focused risk management. The 48 minute discussion can be seen here.

Risk managers as decision facilitators

In this brief interview with Kin Ly from StrategicRISK, we discuss how risk managers can and should leverage their insights to enhance decision quality on all levels.

I had the pleasure to give the keynote address at the risk day at the school of economics, business and law in Gothenburg. The presentation slideshow is downloadable below.
Risk Day - Gothenburg 1 Feb 2019.pdf

I had the pleasure to speak at the New Year assembly of the Danish Building Society. The slides from here (in Danish) are downloadable below.

Byggesocietetets nytårskur 3 jan 19.pdf

ERM - fraud or valuable tool

Alexei Sidorenko of Risk Academy and myself have a discussion around Enterprise Risk Management. As we do not agree on the approach, there are plenty of nuances in this webinar.

Risk-!n conference, Basel

I was proud and happy to collaborate with Katja Rieger of Rippleeffect delivering the opening address at the 2018 Risk-!n conference in Basel on 31 May.

Risk-In Presentation.pdf

Business leadership group introduction

This presentation - in Danish - has been, and is, given to business leader groups (VL grupper) on request as inspiration for a discussion about intelligent risk taking
VL intro.pdf

Risk Management as value driver

This half hour podcast is a discussion between risk visionary Alexei Sidorenko and myself from December 2017 on risk management as a driver of maneuverability and value to a company.

Leverage your risk tolerance

This presentation was prepared for the IDA Risk forum in Copenhagen in December 2017. It outlines why and how to apply intelligent risk taking.

Leverage your risk tolerance - IDA Dec 2017.pdf

Perspectives of risk management

The concept of risk management is, and will continue to be, changing. This presentation was given as the keynote speech at the Strategic Risk Forum in Singapore, May 2017.
Singapore 2017 Key Note.pdf

4 Steps to intelligent risk taking

Risk management can provide a lot more value than protecting decisions already made and risks already taken. This webinar from April 2017 describes four steps to enhance intelligent risk taking.